After more than 2 years of trading, I can tell you a story about forex system. Forex system is a way to trade to have higher chances of profit. Unfortunately not all forex system works. This is because its not the system that is not working. It is you.
What if I tell you that I have a system that consist of Moving Average only. The system can make profit and will minimize you loses or even give you a chance to break even during hard times.
You would be thirll to test it out only to find out that in the end you are losing money and you say the system is crap. The truth is if one person is making money using the exact same system yet you are losing money. So where do you think the fault is? Is it with the system or is it with yourself?
You can never gain profit in Forex until you figure out what is wrong with you. Most of the time when you are losing money you would blame it on the market, news, system etc but never on yourself. Until you figure out what you did wrong, any system no matter how good will fail in your hands. After you realize what you did wrong, then you can make money, seriously.
When you know what not to do, you can trade without any indicator. I myself is trading using only MA now. Took me a while to understand but once you see it, you no longer depending on any indicator. It is your judgement that counts.
I never know what I would learn the further I go in this world or Forex. Right now I am starting to understand why some traders trade without any indicator. The best indicator is in your brain. You just need to develope it. It will take some time. No hurry
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
TRADING ONLY WITH MOVING AVERAGE
At the moment I am rather busy. Moving to a new place and house. The house still needs a lot of work. As a result, I do not have time to update this blog. Trading is still going on but on a shorter timeframe. Result is consistent now. AudUsd is very kind at the moment with no sudden movement.
In the next few weeks I will show you how to trade using only MA. As usual what works for me may not work for you. This is because some of you may not be able to follow the rules of the game.
RULES OF THE GAME
1. Trade based on your capital and the time that you have. The bigger your capital the longer the TF. The more time you have the longer the TF. Vice versa.
2. Only trade at the direction pointed by the MA pairs. If the MA pairs is showing mixed direction, do not trade. The MA pairs must be pointing at the same direction.
3. If a trade suddenly change direction, do not hesitate to close it at a loss and turn the trade. This is the hardest part where most of you failed. Free your mind or become a loser all your life.
4. Keep in mind, there is no such thing as winning all the time. Just make sure you win a lot more than you lose. In the end your profit will grow along with your confident.
Simple system with simple rules. I like to keep it simple. No point of having the most complex system when simple system can have the same result. With this system you will be out of the market most of the time. This is because you will only be taking the big move and avoiding the small move and market noise.
Last advise. Do not anticipate. Forex is not a game of inteligence eventhough this system at full swing will show you possible turning point. I am having a possible turning point for audusd at 0.7200 but I will not take it coz there will be market swing before the actual turn. Why wast time waiting for the big move when you can actually see when its going to move.
In the mean time, good luck for all of you. I will be back once my pc is online again. At the moment I am posting this on a laptop. I dont like laptop, too small keypad, makes it hard to do speed typing.
In the next few weeks I will show you how to trade using only MA. As usual what works for me may not work for you. This is because some of you may not be able to follow the rules of the game.
RULES OF THE GAME
1. Trade based on your capital and the time that you have. The bigger your capital the longer the TF. The more time you have the longer the TF. Vice versa.
2. Only trade at the direction pointed by the MA pairs. If the MA pairs is showing mixed direction, do not trade. The MA pairs must be pointing at the same direction.
3. If a trade suddenly change direction, do not hesitate to close it at a loss and turn the trade. This is the hardest part where most of you failed. Free your mind or become a loser all your life.
4. Keep in mind, there is no such thing as winning all the time. Just make sure you win a lot more than you lose. In the end your profit will grow along with your confident.
Simple system with simple rules. I like to keep it simple. No point of having the most complex system when simple system can have the same result. With this system you will be out of the market most of the time. This is because you will only be taking the big move and avoiding the small move and market noise.
Last advise. Do not anticipate. Forex is not a game of inteligence eventhough this system at full swing will show you possible turning point. I am having a possible turning point for audusd at 0.7200 but I will not take it coz there will be market swing before the actual turn. Why wast time waiting for the big move when you can actually see when its going to move.
In the mean time, good luck for all of you. I will be back once my pc is online again. At the moment I am posting this on a laptop. I dont like laptop, too small keypad, makes it hard to do speed typing.
Fundamentals of a Good Web Host
Finding a web host is easy, but finding a good one is hard. Really, all you need to do to find one is to Google the words 'web host' and you will be overcome by thousands of hits, from hundreds of different companies who will be offering you their brand of the best web hosting solution out there. What you need to understand is that anyone can offer you this service, but only a select few can have the services and the resources to give you a good web hosting service.
What this article is going to do is to just list down some of the features that you might want to look out for when talking about web hosts that will be able to support your needs and then some. These are just some general guidelines and some of the basics that these hosts must live up to. Depending on the nature of why you need a web host, you might want to look at other more advanced features. One of the things you need to look out for is the digital disk space that will be allotted to you when you sign up with their service. The thing is, one of the main problems that people encounter when getting a good web host is that they do not get enough disk space.
Make sure that you get more than you need when you are signing up with a host, because the whole point of getting a website is to be able to expand at a later date. One of the more common sizes to look out for is above 100 megs, and some may consider in excess of 500 megs depending on the type of website and the sort of volume that you may be expecting. Another thing you need to look out for is the type of bandwidth and the sort of network technology that they are using. 56K is not going to cut it, but you get the idea. Normally a server would at least run something like a T1 or faster connection on multiple ports to support domain names.
Host Gator provides Shared, Reseller and Dedicated web hosting solutions. Our services are designed for both beginners and professionals. All of our shared plans include a 99.9% uptime guarantee, 24/7 support and a 45-day money back guarantee.
http://secure.hostgator.com/cgi-bin/affiliates/clickthru.cgi?id=atinder
What this article is going to do is to just list down some of the features that you might want to look out for when talking about web hosts that will be able to support your needs and then some. These are just some general guidelines and some of the basics that these hosts must live up to. Depending on the nature of why you need a web host, you might want to look at other more advanced features. One of the things you need to look out for is the digital disk space that will be allotted to you when you sign up with their service. The thing is, one of the main problems that people encounter when getting a good web host is that they do not get enough disk space.
Make sure that you get more than you need when you are signing up with a host, because the whole point of getting a website is to be able to expand at a later date. One of the more common sizes to look out for is above 100 megs, and some may consider in excess of 500 megs depending on the type of website and the sort of volume that you may be expecting. Another thing you need to look out for is the type of bandwidth and the sort of network technology that they are using. 56K is not going to cut it, but you get the idea. Normally a server would at least run something like a T1 or faster connection on multiple ports to support domain names.
Host Gator provides Shared, Reseller and Dedicated web hosting solutions. Our services are designed for both beginners and professionals. All of our shared plans include a 99.9% uptime guarantee, 24/7 support and a 45-day money back guarantee.
http://secure.hostgator.com/cgi-bin/affiliates/clickthru.cgi?id=atinder
Web Hosting, Reseller Hosting, and Dedicated Hosting
Now hosting over 1,800,000 domains!
Host Gator provides Shared, Reseller and Dedicated web hosting solutions. Our services are designed for both beginners and professionals. All of our shared plans include a 99.9% uptime guarantee, 24/7 support and a 45-day money back guarantee.
Host Gator provides Shared, Reseller and Dedicated web hosting solutions. Our services are designed for both beginners and professionals. All of our shared plans include a 99.9% uptime guarantee, 24/7 support and a 45-day money back guarantee.
Determinants of FX Rates
The following theories explain the fluctuations in FX rates in a floating exchange rate regime (In a fixed exchange rate regime, FX rates are decided by its government):
(a) International parity conditions viz; purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, Domestic Fisher effect, International Fisher effect. Though to some extent the above theories provide logical explanation for the fluctuations in exchange rates, yet these theories falter as they are based on challengeable assumptions which seldom hold true in the real world.
(b) Balance of payments model. This model, however, focuses largely on tradable goods and services, ignoring the increasing role of global capital flows. It failed to provide any explanation for continuous appreciation of dollar during 1980s and most part of 1990s in face of soaring US current account deficit.
Economic factors
These include: (a)economic policy, disseminated by government agencies and central banks, (b)economic conditions, generally revealed through economic reports, and other economic indicators.
Economic policy comprises government fiscal policy (budget/spending practices) and monetary policy (the means by which a government's central bank influences the supply and "cost" of money, which is reflected by the level of interest rates).
Economic conditions include:
* Government budget deficits or surpluses
* The market usually reacts negatively to widening government budget deficits, and positively to narrowing budget deficits. The impact is reflected in the value of a country's currency.
Balance of trade levels and trends
* The trade flow between countries illustrates the demand for goods and services, which in turn indicates demand for a country's currency to conduct trade. Surpluses and deficits in trade of goods and services reflect the competitiveness of a nation's economy. For example, trade deficits may have a negative impact on a nation's currency.
(a) International parity conditions viz; purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, Domestic Fisher effect, International Fisher effect. Though to some extent the above theories provide logical explanation for the fluctuations in exchange rates, yet these theories falter as they are based on challengeable assumptions which seldom hold true in the real world.
(b) Balance of payments model. This model, however, focuses largely on tradable goods and services, ignoring the increasing role of global capital flows. It failed to provide any explanation for continuous appreciation of dollar during 1980s and most part of 1990s in face of soaring US current account deficit.
Economic factors
These include: (a)economic policy, disseminated by government agencies and central banks, (b)economic conditions, generally revealed through economic reports, and other economic indicators.
Economic policy comprises government fiscal policy (budget/spending practices) and monetary policy (the means by which a government's central bank influences the supply and "cost" of money, which is reflected by the level of interest rates).
Economic conditions include:
* Government budget deficits or surpluses
* The market usually reacts negatively to widening government budget deficits, and positively to narrowing budget deficits. The impact is reflected in the value of a country's currency.
Balance of trade levels and trends
* The trade flow between countries illustrates the demand for goods and services, which in turn indicates demand for a country's currency to conduct trade. Surpluses and deficits in trade of goods and services reflect the competitiveness of a nation's economy. For example, trade deficits may have a negative impact on a nation's currency.
Today's Currency World
In the 30 years since the collapse of the last gentlemanly agreement on currency rates, many momentous events have occurred that have affected currencies worldwide. The Japanese yen gained prominence because of Japan's heavy export relationship with the United States. The USSR collapsed. We have had several undeclared wars, the south Asian economies have risen and collapsed, and several investor bubbles have come and gone.Each time, currencies have come away with a newly earned respect by the masses. There has also been a constant element of surprise that keeps you guessing what's next.Current conditions, such as the United States' perpetual war on “terror”, the permanent introduction and dominance of the euro currency, the steady O.P.E.C. increases in oil prices, and gold's renaissance as a store of value, will likely have a tremendous impact on the future of what it means to trade currencies.This could be a fundamental shift in the next phase of currency development.
The 1970's United States Currency Policy Meltdown
Once again, we are hit with the triumvirate of war, the restrictive gold standard, and dollars in foreign banks.This time, each problem was feeding directly off of the others. The Vietnam Conflict had drained our gold reserves heavily. By 1970, Fort Knox only held US$12 Billion.The growth of the oil business and the increase in foreign trade caused a boom in the demand for US dollars in foreign banks. Over US$ 47 Billion was sitting in overseas banks.On paper, our gold reserves were over-leveraged by almost 4 to 1. As a nation, we did not know how to react to such an overbearing assault on our currency. Then along came the invention of the Eurodollar to make our nightmare worse.Foreign banks with US dollars would make low-interest loans in US dollars to importers and exporters. Although the dollars were never repatriated, the US was still on the hook to exchange these “credit”-created dollars for the gold we kept on reserve.Then came a miracle in disguise . The Bretton Woods Agreement collapsed. In the over-leveraged gold-dollar environment, many countries began to feel frustrated with the artificial peg.In blatant defiance to the agreement in 1971, Germany declared that they would float the Deutsche mark. They were tired of the artificial peg that was keeping their economy depressed.In the first hour of trading, over US$1 billion were exchanged for Deutsche marks. For the first time, the public had voiced their opinion against being so heavily weighted with dollars.With Germany completely ignoring the Bretton Woods Agreement by floating their currency, the US government had nothing left to do but put the final nail in the coffin of the U.S.'s currency policy. The Bretton Woods Agreement was dissolved.Three short months after the Deutsche mark began to float, the US moved off of the gold standard. Gold was allowed to float freely like any other currency. Oil, although priced in US dollars, soon switched to a peg against gold. Gold and oil prices jumped ten-fold.The currency dynamics were soon changed on a global scale and it became accepted practice that countries began to float their own currency.
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